Updates

Preview of the forecast map on a laptop screen

Conflict Forecast is a new website launched by Hannes Mueller (IAE-CSIC and Barcelona GSE) and Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge). The site provides forecasts for outbreaks of violence and escalations into armed conflict. 

All forecasts are based on a database of more than 5 million newspaper articles which are updated continuously. The team developed their forecast method over the course of more than five years to extract subtle signals from the news — even in low-risk countries without a recent conflict history — in order to provide international decision-makers and country experts with an objective benchmark to mobilize de-escalation and peace processes in time.

The website makes the team's method accessible to a broader public through cutting-edge data visualization tools. It also gathers forecast histories, which are available to practitioners and research teams world-wide.

Forecasts are updated regularly and can be downloaded easily from the website: conflictforecast.org.

For a technical explanation of the framework, see the team's Barcelona GSE Working Paper, "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention."

See also the team's paper, "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text" in American Political Science Review and "Can machine learning help policymakers detect conflict?" (a non-technical summary in the Barcelona GSE Focus).

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