Preview of the forecast map on a laptop screen

Conflict Forecast is a new website launched by Hannes Mueller (IAE-CSIC and Barcelona GSE) and Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge). The site provides forecasts for outbreaks of violence and escalations into armed conflict. 

All forecasts are based on a database of more than 5 million newspaper articles which are updated continuously. The team developed their forecast method over the course of more than five years to extract subtle signals from the news — even in low-risk countries without a recent conflict history — in order to provide international decision-makers and country experts with an objective benchmark to mobilize de-escalation and peace processes in time.

The website makes the team's method accessible to a broader public through cutting-edge data visualization tools. It also gathers forecast histories, which are available to practitioners and research teams world-wide.

Forecasts are updated regularly and can be downloaded easily from the website: conflictforecast.org.

For a technical explanation of the framework, see the team's Barcelona GSE Working Paper, "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention."

See also the team's paper, "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text" in American Political Science Review and "Can machine learning help policymakers detect conflict?" (a non-technical summary in the Barcelona GSE Focus).

Other recent updates


Fellowship call: Women for Africa Foundation (deadline Sep 30)

The Women for Africa Foundation (FMxA) has announced the 7th edition of the Science by Women research fellowship program. The...

Women for Africa Foundation

What's new at the Barcelona GSE Data Science Center?

Visit datascience.barcelonagse.eu to explore the Barcelona GSE Data Science Center's research, training, and knowledge transfer activities in Data...


Forthcoming publications by Barcelona GSE Affiliated Professors

See a list of forthcoming publications by Barcelona GSE Affiliated Professors and search papers already published

Barcelona GSE Research